Nervous but excited….

…I would apologise for not putting anything up recently, but any complaints should be directed towards the University of Sussex, Mark Mazower and Eric Hobsbawn. Not my fault, guv….

Plenty has happened since the South African victory, what with the end of the transfer window, the progression through the domestic season, a couple of injuries here and there and whatnot. Leading us to tomorrow night, and the world champions, Italy. It’s probably our biggest match since the 1-0 defeat to France back in September 2005, because that night a win would have probably taken us to the finals in Germany.

Unfortunately, the situation tomorrow night isn’t the same, but a win will at least take it down to the final round of fixtures. Look, no huge build-up, no unnecessary banging the drum, Italy will qualify, because they’ll beat a very bad Cyprus team in Parma. So tomorrow night, realistically, is about ensuring second place, and also it’s a test of where we stand in the pecking order. Not since that heady day in September 2001 (Jason McAteer will want to be watching that tonight, I feel) have we beaten a top class team in a competitive match. Draws in the Stade De France and the San Nicola and a 0-0 with Germany at home are as good as it’s got in the last eight years, so we’re overdue a big performance to topple one of the big sides.

Ramifications? Win, and we guarantee our place in the play-offs (I have PLENTY to say about that if I get a chance), draw, and it will guarantee Italy’s place in the finals as group winner, while we will need to get something against Montenegro on Wednesday night to be assured of our place in the play-offs. Lose? Perish the thought, Italy get their spot in the finals, and it makes Wednesday night crap. We’ll almost certainly have to win to make the play-offs, given Bulgaria’s likely six-point haul over the next few days and superior goal difference after their two games, assuming they do win their matches and we lose against Italy….a bit complicated at the end, I agree, so all the more reason for us to win tomorrow night and secure our place as one of the eight best runners-up.

The team? As follows, 4-4-2…

GK: Given
DL: Kilbane
DR: O’Shea
DC: Dunne
DC: St. Ledger
ML: McGeady
MR: Lawrence
MC: Andrews
MC: Whelan
FC: Keane
FC: Doyle

Injury to Damien Duff and Trap’s sudden love for Liam Lawrence has seen everything change out wide in midfield. McGeady will slot in for Duffer on the left, while Lawrence makes his first competitive start for us on the right-side, preferred ahead of Stephen Hunt. Myself, I would have preferred to see Lawrence add something extra to a midfield once again shorn of Stephen Reid (Achilles grumble), but Andrews and Whelan it is, which concerns me, because they failed to control the midfield against Cyprus…and whoever Italy put out in the centre will be eminently better. Uh-oh. Lawrence and whoever you wanted (Ronnie Whelan!) would be better, play Stephen Hunt on the left and McGeady on his preferred right side and we could be onto something. Beyond the midfield, everything is as you would expect and as it probably should be, maybe with the exception of that damn Kilbane at left-back. Dunne and Doyle need big performances, while Sean St. Ledger can cement his position as starting centre-back with an impressive showing.

Italy? They’ve plodded along somewhat, but they’re still unbeaten, and they will either secure their spot on Saturday or Wednesday. Their likely side is as follows, 4-2-3-1.

GK: Buffon
DL: Grosso
DR: Zambrotta
DC: Legrottaglie
DC: Chiellini
MC: De Rossi
MC: Palombo
AMC: Pirlo
AMC: Camoranesi
AMC: Iaquinta
FC: Gilardino

All fairly familiar, although I must say, to my shame, I’m at a loss when it comes to Palombo (First name Angelo, captain of Sampdoria, central midfielder, as good as Gennaro Gattuso, thank you partisan Wikipedia author). Buffon is up with Casillas (and Shay Given) as one of the best goalkeepers in the world, I haven’t seen much of Grosso since that classy finish against the Germans in 2006, and the even classier penalty, I’ve seen even less of Legrottalie, so forgive me for my lack of knowledge. Zambrotta is a class act in any case, and Chiellini is arguably the most improved player at the top level in the last few years.

De Rossi is another classy individual, with more ability in his right foot than our combined central midfield (Sorry, it had to be said). Camoranesi never struck me as a world-class player, but that’s made up for with the prescence of Pirlo in that attacking trio, who could open us up if we’re not careful, accompanied by Iaquinta, who I think will wind up working as a strikeforce with Gilardino. It might make for a lack of width, but that could play into the Italians’ hands, given our weak central midfield. Play it through the centre and they could punish us, but I get the impression I’m being a bit too negative.

Look, no matter how Italy line up, and what style they adopt, they’ll be more than a handful, but I just get the feeling we’re due a really serious performance at home. It’s certainly been a long time since I was so excited for a match involving our lot, because there’s still an awful lot to play for. It’s almost certainly not going to stop Italy finishing top, but win, and we give ourselves a genuine shot at qualification via the play-offs, and it means we can relax to some degree on Wednesday night. A massive game for all involved on our side, and the Italians will do well not to underestimate us as well, because our home record stands up with a lot of other sides (No competitive defeat at home since that France game, three this decade).

Opinions on a result? I’ve seen 3-0 on the Italian blog (Not happening, sorry Julian), mac on the last blog post went for a 2-0 win for our lads (Sorry mac, same thing as Julian), while Giuseppe may have got closest with a 2-1 Italian win, certainly it seems the most likely result of the three. Myself? 0-0. It’s got a draw written all over it for me, unless Italy score early, in which case it could be nasty…a win for us looks unlikely if we’re being honest, but then again, no-one fancied us before Holland…so all things considered…I have no clue how it’s going to wind up. Helpful!

Let’s hope by this time tomorrow night the party’s just started. If it has, don’t expect to see any (level-headed) reaction on here before Tuesday, to go along with a preview of the Montenegro game. Analysis will be up in the next few days hopefully all. Until then…Forza Irlanda!

All the best everyone