Nearly there…

…because anyone who truly expected to finish ahead of Italy was at best an optimist, at worst a lunatic.

The World Champions did us a favour tonight, in my opinion. Italy’s 2-0 win in Turin against Bulgaria all but confirmed their place in South Africa, whilst also more or less condemning Bulgaria to missing out, which leaves us as piggy in the middle, heading towards a play-off place.

Here’s the highlights that matter, with Fabio Grosso losing Stanislav Manolev (who, if we are to judge by the two goals, looked miles out of his depth) to bag the first. Vicenzo Iaquinta made it two with some even better interchange between himself and his team-mates, again getting the better of Manolev to get free and slot home. I’m not really in the position to offer anything about how either side played, but the two goals were classy and clinical, what you would expect from an Italian side. They may have been iffy up to this point in the group, but they remain undefeated, and at points, especially tonight, they’ve shown why they’re the champions. Good luck to them in South Africa, but we’ll be looking to give them a bloody nose to take with them to the finals, whilst also aiming to secure our own path to the competition.

As things stand, this is Group 8, or at least, the part which now matters.

Italy: Played 8, 20 points
Ireland: Played 8, 16 points
Bulgaria: Played 8, 11 points

Each side has two games remaining. Italy play us next in Croker, then are at home to Cyprus for their final match. We have Montenegro at home after Italy, while Bulgaria still need to go away to Cyprus and finish off at home to Georgia.

Permutations? Italy get a point from either of their last two games, they win the group. Expect them to be in South Africa by the end of our match with them, if not, they’ll seal it against Cyprus a few days later. If, however, the Italians decide to field their cricket team for shits and giggles in the last two, and still fail to pick up a point, and we win our last two, we will win the group and qualify. You can forget about that one right away, incidentally.

Bulgaria have it stacked against them. While their last two games aren’t the most taxing they will have had in the group, we should (nay, must) pick up two points somewhere within our last two games, more than likely with a win against Montenegro. Two Bulgarian wins and one point for us will, however, almost certainly see them into the play-offs though, given the fact that their goal difference is only inferior to ours by one. Essentially, we can put the issue to bed with a win in our last game, but it’s a situation to at least keep an eye on. For the Bulgarians, it’s a case of winning and hoping for other results to come in, but it’s not mathmatical improbabilities yet. Oh, the life of a pessimist!

Assuming we do get over the line, focus then shifts to this nonsense play-off system in place. As much as I love the World Cup, and find great enjoyment in the whole qualification process, this is a rubbish system which benefits no-one, and the side who misses out, who frankly at this point should not be us, I feel massively sympathetic for. Finished second in your group? Here, have the summer off without even having a chance to contend the issue! While you’re at it, maybe have a look at all those sides who did the exact same as you try and make it to the finals! What a load of bollocks.

Nevertheless, here are the current standings. Now, I know we’re currently 8th, but that’s not a particular reason to panic. Fact is, two more points guarantee us a play-off spot, because Bulgaria would then be unable to catch us, and Norway, having concluded their group tonight, will be on 10 points compared to our 12.

Bear with me on this one, but Georgia could even put us out of the woods with finishing bottom of that follow-on table by winning against Montenegro in their next match, because then they would move up to 5th, and the 6 points we won against them, compared with the at best 4 we can pick up against Montenegro would translate into 15 points overall against the other sides in the Top 5 of our group, actually leaving us looking fairly handsome in that table. Essentially, two draws = a play-off, and if you’d offered me that two years ago, I’d have bitten your arm off and been institutionalised for cannibalism.

I’ll worry about the matches with Italy and Montenegro closer to the time. Frankly, there’s little point winding up towards either of them now, because there’s still a month to go. Top is unrealistic, second doesn’t appear to be a serious problem, and we just need to now get the lads through their next few club matches with no scares and then we can get going on finishing the job and focusing on the play-offs. Pondering who we’re going to face over two legs for a place in the finals is also premature and pointless at the moment. The only sides who currently find themselves guaranteed of a play-off spot are one of Germany and Russia in Group 4 and Norway, who are probably going to be the victims of this shite system devised. When all is said and done, we can start worrying about avoiding France…

Beyond that, there’s little to report on the national front. There is, however, plenty to discuss beyond the national realm, which I’ve been meaning to get around to. So, expect a few articles discussing a few other points which relate to Irish football over the next few weeks before we get going on qualification once again. Transfers, St. Pats’ in Europe, Paddy Kenny, there’s a few issues to tackle. I can’t promise anything too quickly, because as of Sunday, I’m back in the Motherland to spend my 20th birthday with family, but when I get back (19th September), expect something to chew on.

Until then all, take care.