Look at it this way, we’re not Norway…

…because their situation is truly rubbish.

A few brief points. We drew 0-0 with Montenegro in our final game, about two weeks ago now. It was played at a testimonial pace, and there were three moments of any note. Richard Dunne hit the crossbar before half time, Paul McShane pulled off a brilliant save to deny one of the Montenegran lads in the second half, a save Shay would have been proud to have made on his 100th appearance, and he didn’t give a penalty away, what a hero! That and Martin Rowlands caught his studs in the turf during the first half, ruling himself out of the play-offs, which sucks a little bit. The experience of the game would have helped him no end, but he was going to be a peripheral figure in the two legs barring injury or suspension, so it’s not a massive loss, merely disappointing.

Game was awful, we were uninspired, Gilardino saved Italy B’s blushes against the Cypriots, meaning we finished 6 points behind the world champions. The chasm wasn’t that big, but we got what we realisically set out to get last September. And then we drew France…which I predicted, but that doesn’t make me feel too much better about it.

What to make of the draw? The worst one we could get, in all truth. Words had been thrown around about Portugal being a more dangerous outfit, but they’ll be without a fully operational Ronaldo at best, which takes an awful lot of their potency away. It would have been tight, would have come down to the away leg for us. They’ll see off Bosnia, but not before getting a bloody nose.

Russia? Bugger going over to Moscow in November, but I’d have fancied us to win at home, they have a sprinkling of decent players (and one very good player) but they’re hardly world beaters. We could have taken them. I’m not sure how they’ll get on with Slovenia, they have a habit of pulling out results when they most need them…

Greece? Given the varied and many disparaging comments everyone made about them, it was probably best to give them the swerve, because our pundits had more or less provided King Otto with all the motivational material he needed for the two legs. That and a night in the bear pit which could have been the Karaiskakis (In those situations, you can’t put a price on hostility, so maybe the Olympic Stadium would have been sacrificed…maybe) could have spelt disaster for us…they’ll beat Ukraine, hold me to that.

Which leaves us with the best side in the draw, although you wouldn’t have known it from the way they staggered through Group 7 in qualifying, especially in the early stages. Defeat in Austria was the disastrous start, but a 2-1 win against the Serbians in the Stade de France four days later put them back on track. A 2-2 draw in Romania a month later was another serious blip for Les Blues, a result which probably put Raymond Domenech on the brink of the P45, failure to win in Lithuania probably spelling the end for the much-maligned boss.

Two successive 1-0 wins against the Lithuanians kept Domenech in a job however, with a scrappy 1-0 win in the Faroe Islands allowing France to at least stay on the coat-tails of the Serbians. But another draw with the Romanians, 1-1 in the Stade, allowed the leaders to go to the brink of qualification before hosting the French in Belgrade on the 9th September. A 1-1 draw, with the French coming from behind, only delayed the inevitable, and Serbia sealed qualification a month later with a 5-0 win at home to the surprisingly off-colour Romanians. For the record, France saw off the Faroes 5-0 in Guingamp on the same night, before recording a relatively impressive 3-1 win against Austria at home on the final night of the group stage, to finish seven points clear of the third-placed Austrians, trailing the Serbians by a point when it was all said and done. And now here we are…

What to make of this French side? What to say of any French side of the last….50 years. They’re hopelessley talented, but like a lot of French sides throughout the years, they’ve flattered to decieve, this time around being no exception, unfortunately. If we’re dealing with a straight comparison, the only players from this Ireland side who would get into the French side who drew in Serbia (I’m not counting those games against the Faroes and Austria, they’re not truly representative examples) would be Shay Given over Hugo Lloris, and Richard Dunne ahead of William Gallas. And that’s not to say that Lloris or Gallas are bad players, it’s more to say that Shay is arguably the world’s best goalkeeper, and that I have a serious dislike of William Gallas (That and from a serious point of view, I worry about his temper in big situations).

Beyond that, you’re talking about Bacari Sagna, Patrice Evra, Lassana Diarra, Franck Ribery (although he will probably not feature in the play-offs due to injury), Karim Benzema, Nicolas Anelka and more so than anyone else, that bastard Thierry Henry. That arrogant, irritating, stuck-up, outspoken yet utterly brilliant Thierry Henry. That’s just six…Domenech discovered Andre-Pierre Gignac in the latter stages of qualifying, and you can also make a case for any from Eric Abidal, Florent Malouda, Yoann Gourcuff and Bafetimbi Gomis. Formidable? Oui.

By all accounts the weak link lies in the management, but I’m not having that, personally. Domenech’s track record shows one serious blip in twenty years, being eliminated in the group stages of Euro 2008, when they were caught in the storm created by a Dutch side who peaked two weeks too early. Admittedly, that fails to excuse their performances against Romania and Italy.

If we ignore that, then you’re talking about a manager with two promotions to Ligue 1, the first with FC Mulhouse in 1989, who then dropped back down into Ligue 2, and swiftly got Lyon up into Ligue 1, following that with finishing 8th and 5th and securing a place in the UEFA Cup. After that, he spent 11 years as manager of the French Under-21 team, reaching the Under-21 European Championship final once and making the semis on two more occasions. There’s also six finals in the Toulon championship to consider, with two victories in 1997 and 2004.

Then his ascension to the big seat after Euro 2004. And France’s second final after wins against Spain, Brazil and Portugal, being undone by penalties and arguably by a momentary loss of control by their best player. So you have two promotions, two decent league finishes in a time when Lyon were trailing in the wake of the talented yet flawed Marseille side, along with a reasonable level of achievement at youth level, thrown in with an appearance at a World Cup final as a coach, something only 32 other men have on their CV’s in the history of football…we’re not talking about a coach with a track record of failure here.

Point to his distrust of Scorpios if you want, point to his very public love life, point to the strange situation with Claude Makelele’s selection back in November 2007, I’ll just worry about the results he’s achieved over the last two decades, alright with you? It’s this habit of pulling out results when required which is a cause for concern on my part, it’s something we’ve been on the wrong end of back in 2005, and a trick Domenech has repeated against the likes of Spain, Brazil and Italy in recent times. Eccentric he may be, incompetent he is not…

But then neither are we…scepticism about our chances is obviously the over-riding feeling amongst the masses, but I’ve heard a few optimistic shouts and a few believing we’ll make the finals. God, I hope they’re right, but I can’t share their faith if I’m using my head. We’re going to give France two very tough games, and if they make the finals, they’ll know they will have had to work for it. The first match at Croke is crucial for us.

Realistically, we need to win and keep a clean sheet. An away goal for France and we’re in massive trouble. If we go to Paris 1-0 up however, it will be an intriguing night. 0-0 wouldn’t be a disaster for us at home, but anything like 2-1 to us or 1-1, essentially anything which involves France scoring in Dublin spells trouble. A win for France in Croke and you can write it off, I’m sorry to say. There is however heart to be taken from our last trip to Paris, a 0-0 draw in qualifying for the last World Cup, in which 70,000 Irish (70,000!) saw John O’Shea miss a great chance to win it for us. That was with a side of similar talents, but less resilliency. If we go to the Stade with something to play with, we could be going to the World Cup, it makes the first leg so, so crucial.

Up to this point, the lads have stayed fit and healthy, of course sans Rowlands. This needs to stay the same until the 14th November. Shay ideally needs to be placed under house arrest, Richard Dunne needs to avoid any further troubles with his knees, Duffer needs to protect his calf and Robbie has to keep his excellent form with injury up. Beyond that, the lads have been playing well for clubs. Glenn Whelan has a winning goal at White Hart Lane to his name, Aiden McGeady is looking good in a very bad Celtic team, and Kevin Doyle seems to be ticking along nicely at Wolves, although I’m sure he and the Molineaux fans would rather see some of the effort he puts in replaced by a few more goals. All things told, no-one is in terrible form for club or country, and with any luck, this will hold for 3 more weeks.

A lot of ifs, but if we keep them scoreless at Croker, if everyone stays fit, healthy and in form and if someone takes a sledgehammer to various kneecaps, then of course we stand a chance. It’s two matches, for a place in the World Cup finals, that’s pure motivation, that along should lead our lads through the two legs. What we lack in ability compared with the French, we more than make up for in desire, it’s arguably the key element to this side. I maintain faith in Trap and his methods, and I believe the players can defeat France, but I’m also realistic as to what will happen if the French decide to turn up. It’s going to be interesting anyways.

Now, I know I have a LOT of things to pass judgment on. Paddy Kenny’s international career, although barely a non-starter in the first place, is dead in the water after his nine-month ban for cough medicine abuse was upheld. Sam Allardyce, he of many irritating views and no away win in 7 months with Blackburn, has decided to take a dig at Trap over the strange case of Steven Reid. And there’s still the topic of Shay and Kevin’s 100 caps to contend with….I shall try my best. Right now, I should be doing an essay on Danish and Norweigan minority governments and their viability as part of a European democracy….but we all know how that one is going to end. Hopefully I’ll have something to put up on these points in the forthcoming weeks, but I’ll see how things pan out. If not, you’ll hear from me when Trap announces the squad for the two games, probably in a fortnight’s time.

Until then everyone, all the best.